Cameron George is living the dream. Back in 2019, he was stacking shelves in Walmart, but the 26-year-old has since become a full-time crypto trader and content creator.
His social media presence is filled with pictures of him standing next to his lime green McLaren 600 LT and smiling with his wife and five children. He wants between 10 and 20. In his many videos on trading, Cameron is confident and charismatic – he’s been making them since he was 13.
One topic that comes up a lot in his videos is prediction markets, online platforms where you can bet on anything from a football game to when the Strait of Hormuz will re-open to who Taylor Swift will choose as her bridesmaids. Like many young men, Cameron is a fan, and mostly uses them to track the price of cryptocurrencies and get a better understanding of the news.
“Everyone’s always had an opinion, but this is the first time in history you can literally have an opinion with your money on everything,” he says. “I’m really excited to see how much better and bigger the industry will get… It’s such a crazy time to be alive.”
Crazy is one word for it. Prediction markets are a fast-growing, multi-billion-dollar industry. Bets on prediction markets – the main two being Polymarket and Kalshi – have soared in response to a surging demand for betting in the US. Kalshi has recently been valued at $22bn and Polymarket at $9bn.
Prediction market users are disproportionately under the age of 45 and 71% are men, according to a recent study from analytics firm Morning Consult. Just over a quarter of American men aged 18-24 say they have used at least one prediction market or gambling app in the past six months compared to 14% of the general public, according to a poll by the American Institute for Boys and Men (AIBM) and Ipsos.
So, to what extent is their popularity a reflection of broader questions around men and their sense of self-worth?
Prediction markets hit a lot of key male interests. “[They] seem to sit at the intersection of several already male-dominated online cultures such as sports betting, crypto speculation, ‘finance bro’ culture, streamer and influencer fandoms, meme investing, and competitive online prediction communities,” Professor Elvira Bolat from Bournemouth University says.
“The vibes are young male vibes,” Jonathan Cohen, head of sports betting policy at the AIBM, says. For him, there’s a strong neurological factor – young men’s attitude to sports, money, and prediction markets is down to what he describes as “an underdeveloped pre-frontal cortex and a high appetite for risk”.
Gambling is restricted across many US states, but prediction markets are not classified as gambling in the US, allowing people to place bets across all 50 states. Instead, they are commodity futures trading – the same bracket as buying or selling oil or metal on markets. Just like the stock or commodities markets, prediction markets make money through charging a small fee on any bet.
Supporters say prediction markets are a smart, modern way to make money. This is because the odds change based on how other people are betting rather than a bookmaker’s judgement. They argue this gives users better odds and real-time insights into public opinion on anything from sports to politics. They say those insights are more reliable than traditional polls because people are backing their opinions with their money.